Red Clay Citizen

Poll: Dole 47 Hagan 38

And here are the US Senate numbers from this month.  Dole maintains her comfortable lead.  I think just about every poll over the past two months has her up somewhere in the 9-12 point range.

Her initial TV boost after the primary worked to give her that little edge and break away.  Should be interesting to see if Hagan can shrink the margin when her TV ads begin.

Full release here.

Poll: McCain 43 Obama 40

Our July poll results have McCain holding a 3 point lead over Obama 43-40.  This is now inside the margin of error of our poll, so basically we have a dead heat.

Full release here.

One thing I will point out, we seemed to have gotten a funky sample from the 828 area code this month.  Last month we had McCain leading Obama by 19 points in the west.  This month we have Obama leading McCain by 10.

A 29 point swing in one month is pretty much impossible, and knowing what we know about the political bend of western NC, there's just no way Obama is up 10 points out there.

So our poll should probably go a couple of more points towards McCain, but if we're getting into that, it should also go a couple of points towards Obama if the percentage of black vote goes up to around 22% as everyone expects (It's 19% in this month's poll and historical average is around 18%).

Conclusion:  The race is close, but McCain is probably up a small amount.

Poll: Perdue 43 McCrory 40

Our July poll results are in.  We still have Bev Perdue with a slight lead over Pat McCrory 43-40.  Libertarian Michael Munger comes in with 2%.

Full press release here.

McCrory has been inching down one point each month, while Perdue has held steady as a rock at 43%.

Are McCrory's TV ads beginning to wear off?  Or is this just part of the normal fluctuations of polling?
McCrory is still within the margin of error, but it's never good to be sliding backwards.

Either way if you'd have asked any Republican gubernatorial candidate over the past 50 years (maybe 100) if they'd be happy being only 3 points down in July, they'd be thrilled.

Stay tuned for new Senate numbers tomorrow and new Presidential numbers Monday.  Then we should have some real interesting results to release Tuesday that will either make you laugh or cry -- maybe both. (I know, I tease...)

Voters Disagree with Obama on Bilingualism

At a speech in Georgia earlier this week, Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama told the audience, "Instead of worrying about whether immigrants can learn English -- they'll learn English -- you need to make sure your child can speak Spanish. You should be thinking about, how can your child become bilingual?"

Apparently, an overwhelming majority of voters disagree with him.  According to a Rasmussen poll: Eighty-three percent (83%) place a higher priority on encouraging immigrants to speak English as their primary language. Just 13% take the opposite view and say it is more important for Americans to learn other languages.

(HT: Jim Geraghty - National Review)

Gallup: McCain, Obama Tied Nationwide

It what seems to be flying off track with other polls released this week showing Obama with double-digit leads over McCain nationwide, the Gallup daily tracking poll has the race 44-44.

I rarely care what national polls are saying at this point mainly because of a couple of things.
1. We don't elect the president nationwide.
2. It's June.  I think Dukakis was up 18 on Bush Sr. at this same time frame and we know how that turned out.

But, I post this to give a different story than what the mainstream media continues to report.  Take it for what it's worth.

Poll: Voters Support Right-to-Work

Despite the millions of dollars pumped into North Carolina campaigns and an intensive lobbying effort by national unions to weaken North Carolina’s labor laws, voters overwhelmingly support maintaining North Carolina as a right-to-work state according to a new poll released by the Civitas Institute. 

When asked if they supported maintaining North Carolina as a right-to-work state where workers can not be forced into a union, a resounding 78 percent agreed while only 16 percent disagreed.  7 percent were undecided.

“Big labor has targeted North Carolina as a potential state to expand its scope and influence.  Unions like the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and Teamsters are pushing collective bargaining for state and local government employees as the first step towards repealing right-to-work in North Carolina,” said Francis DeLuca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute.  “Unfortunately for the unions, the voters of North Carolina overwhelming reject this path,” DeLuca stated.

The State Employees Association of North Carolina (SEANC) recently voted to officially align with the national SEIU organization.  SEIU and other unions have pumped over $2 million into state and local elections in North Carolina over the past four years.

“It does not matter how long they have lived in North Carolina, natives and newcomers alike have seen the damage done to the economies of states like Michigan and New Jersey by forced unionization.  They do not want to see the same thing happen here,” DeLuca concluded.

Full text of question:

DO YOU SUPPORT KEEPING NORTH CAROLINA A RIGHT-TO-WORK STATE, WHERE WORKERS CAN'T BE FORCED INTO A UNION?

                                    #    %   
YES                             465   78    
NO                                95   16                                 
NOT SURE                      39    7    
REFUSED                              1         

                       TOTAL    600 

For crosstabs click here:

Poll: Dole 48 Hagan 38

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole has opened up a 10 point lead over her Democratic challenger Kay Hagan in the race for U.S. Senate according to the latest DecisionMaker poll results released today by the Civitas Institute.  Dole’s lead has increased by eight points from last month.

Of the 600 likely general election voters surveyed, 48 percent supported Dole while 38 percent supported Hagan.  Libertarian candidate Chris Cole, included in the poll for the first time, received one percent support.  Thirteen percent were undecided.

“Senator Dole has been able to open up a significant lead over her challenger due to the effective advertising campaign she has run over the past month,” explained Civitas Institute Executive Director Francis DeLuca.  “Since last month, Senator Hagan concluded her advertising in conjunction with the end of her primary race, while Senator Dole has just begun to reintroduce herself to voters,” DeLuca concluded.

“In the one area where both candidates have been actively engaged, illegal immigration, Dole has a commanding 63-20 margin over Hagan among voters who identify that as their top issue. Dole is out early and forcefully and it appears successfully, defining herself to voters on this issue,” DeLuca further explained.

Dole has been able to open up her lead from last month by winning over unaffiliated and women voters.  In last month’s poll, Hagan led Dole among unaffiliated voters by a 47-35 margin and led among female voters by a 49-42 margin.  This month, Dole has reversed those numbers is now even among unaffiliated voters 38-38, and leads among female voters 45-41.

Dole leads in all area codes of the state except the Triangle (919) and Hagan’s home area of the Triad (336).

Click here for full results and crosstabs.                                 

Poll: McCain 45 Obama 41

After solidifying the Democratic nomination for President, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) has pulled to within four points of Republican nominee Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in North Carolina according to the Civitas Institute’s June DecisionMaker poll results released today.

Among all voters, Sen. McCain leads Sen. Obama 45-41, a net pickup of one point over last month’s poll which had McCain leading 44-39. Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr, included for the first time in this month’s poll, received two percent support.  Twelve percent were undecided.

“Both Senator McCain and Senator Obama improved their numbers over last month by solidifying the support of their party’s base voters,” said Francis DeLuca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. “Obama increased his support among Democrats by five percent, while McCain increased his support among Republicans by three percent.”

Obama is still struggling to connect with white voters, garnering only 31% of their votes, although that is an improvement over May’s poll which had him at 27% among whites.  Obama is receiving 87% of support of African-American voters.

Previous Civitas Poll results:
February – McCain 46, Obama 36
April – McCain 48, Obama 39
May – McCain 44, Obama 39

Click here for full results and crosstabs.

June Poll Results Coming This Week

Our June DecisionMaker poll results are in, and we'll be releasing some of the details this week:

Tuesday - President
Wednesday - US Senate
Thursday - Governor
Friday - combating high gas prices

Full results will be released next Wednesday at our monthly poll luncheon.  Special guest this month is Bill Lumaye from WPTF.  Reserve your seat here.

Rasmussen July Poll - Copycats!

WRAL has released their latest Rasmussen poll of NC, and geez, some of the questions look real, real familiar.  Oh wait, they are familiar... we asked practically the exact same questions in previous months!

The oil drilling question we asked last month.
The question on official language we've asked many, many times of the past couple of years.
Question 8, we asked with almost the exact same wording in July 2007.

They ask 5 policy questions and 3 of them they practically steal the wording from us.
We must be doing something right.

More on Collective Bargaining/Unions/Elections

To those on the left who mocked my question relating the issues, I give you this press release:

Union prepared to spend more than $150 million, mobilize tens of thousands during and AFTER the election to win healthcare, big improvements for working people.

Under the plan, SEIU leaders are pledging to spend more than $150 million and put tens of thousands of members in motion to achieve those goals by the end of the first 100 days of a new administration.

SEIU leaders also pledged to continue the union’s unprecedented growth by creating a national plan to unite more than 500,000 new members in the union by 2012. That would make SEIU the largest union in American history that is not exclusively public sector, and ensure that it has the strength to continue winning high standards of pay and benefits for its members and all working people.

So, once again, tell me how expanding collective bargaining rights to public employees and SEIU's involvement in elections aren't related?

What is a "Push Poll"? It's Not What the Left Says It Is.

Apparently I struck a nerve with some on the left with my poll question on collective bargaining.  Not only did Left-wing Cheerleader-in-Chief Chris Fitzsimon decry the results as "push polling", but the talking points were passed on to UNC Professor Andrew Perrin (who is basically a government-paid lobbyist for the labor unions) who accused us of the same on his blog.

Take a look at the definition of "push polling" by the polling community standards (and interestingly enough, it's the one Perrin links to on his blog.

Basically, a "push poll" is something that is not really a poll, but calls large quantities of people (usually voters) and spreads false information in order to influence public opinion, i.e. "Would you be more or less likely to vote for John McCain if you knew that he had fathered 6 illegitimate children?"

Since we conducted an actual scientific telephone survey of a random sample of voters and published the results (that Fitzsimons likes to use when results turn out his way, btw), our poll does not fit the definition of a "push poll."

However, what our poll does do is it tests different messages, and that is perfectly legitimate.  Part of the debate in the public policy arena is how issues are framed and many issues can be framed many ways.  My question on collective bargaining framed the policy question in the terms of organized labor's participation in elections.  It was just another way to frame the debate on the issue of collective bargaining.

Unfortunately, Fitzsimon and Perrin are falling into the usual left-wing play book of using demonization and scare tactics to distract you from a poll result that they disagree with.  It is sad that they have to resort to this to get their message across.  If either would like to have a real debate on the perils of collective bargaining and the influence of big labor in our elections, I welcome it any time.  (As an aside, isn't it funny how Fitzsimon can on one had decry the influence of unregulated money in the political system and the need for clean elections, yet turn a blind eye to the millions of unregulated money spent by labor unions.)

Poll: McCain 44 Obama 39

As earlier promised, here are the Presidential numbers from this month's poll.

Full release here.

Among all voters, Sen. McCain leads Sen. Obama 44-39; however, only 58 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Senator Obama. 22 percent would vote for McCain while 20 percent were unsure. Conversely, McCain is garnering 77 percent of Republican support, with 11 percent choosing Obama and only 12 percent unsure.

Only 27 percent of white voters say they plan to vote for Obama, however Obama is capturing 90 percent of the African-American vote.

Obama is garnering less white Democratic support than other statewide Democratic candidates. Among white Democrats, 43 percent support Obama, 55 percent support Bev Perdue for Governor and 60 percent support Kay Hagan for U.S. Senate (Full results of those races coming late).

Obama has not garnered more than 39 percent of the vote in any of Civitas’ polling in North Carolina.

February – McCain 46, Obama 36
April – McCain 48, Obama 39

Poll: NC Voters Oppose Collective Bargaining

Full press release here.  Highlights follow...

Now that the State Employees Association of North Carolina (SEANC) has officially aligned with the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), these groups have made overturning North Carolina’s ban on collective bargaining their highest priority. Unfortunately for them, the voters disagree.

When asked if state employees and teachers’ unions should be able to engage in collective bargaining with elected officials they might endorse in elections, 56 percent said no. Only 30 percent thought it should be allowed. 14 percent were undecided.

Not even a majority of self-identified government employees approved of collective bargaining when asked – 49 percent approved, 40 percent disapproved.

Full text of question:

Should state employee and teacher's unions be allowed to engage in collective bargaining with elected officials they might endorse in elections?

Yes - 30%
No - 56%
Not Sure - 14%

Poll: Voters Approve of Marriage Amendment

Sorry for the delay in getting this up on the blog... Been a long couple of days at the General Assembly.

Full release here.

With the recent decision by the California Supreme Court overturning its state’s ban on gay marriage still in the headlines, voters in North Carolina strongly support enacting an Amendment to the North Carolina Constitution defining marriage as between one man and one woman.

When asked, 71 percent of voters support enacting the Amendment while only 26 percent are opposed.  Three percent were not sure.

Among African-American voters, 86 percent favor the marriage amendment, while only 13 percent oppose. The margin among white voters is considerably closer at 67-30.

Full text of question:

Do you support a Constitutional Amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman?

Yes - 71%
No - 26%
Not Sure - 3%

Voters Oppose Gas Tax Holiday

But support drilling off the coast of North Carolina.  Here's the full release.

Full text of questions:

Do you support a proposed gas tax holiday over the summer months or believe these funds should be kept for road construction and maintenance in North Carolina?

Support Holiday - 28%
Kept for Roads - 60%
Not Sure - 12%

Do you support or oppose oil and gas exploration off the coast of North Carolina?

Support - 68%
Oppose - 20%
Not Sure - 11%

Poll Results Coming this Week

Our May DecisionMaker poll results are in and I'll be releasing the details over the next few days leading up to the full results at our monthly luncheon next Wednesday.  (Register here to attend).

We've got some really good information in this month's poll that we're billing as a "Preview of the Upcoming General Assembly Session."

A little teaser on what's coming:
Later today:  Gas tax holiday and the marriage amendment
Tomorrow: Collective bargaining for state employees
Thursday: A first look at the Federal races for the General election (President and US Senate)
Friday: Governor and Lt. Governor numbers

So check back throughout the week for the latest insight and analysis here on the blog as well.

Civitas Poll: Voters Want Laurean Charged With 2 Murders

Should murderers who kill a pregnant woman that is carrying a viable fetus be charged with one murder or two?

34 states including California and Massachusetts say that is considered two separate murders.  In the state of North Carolina, the death of the viable fetus is an "aggravating factor" that can yield a higher punishment, but is not considered murder.

For our April poll, we asked likely voters: "If a woman is carrying a viable fetus and she is murdered, should there be one or two murder charges?"

82% of respondents said two.  12% said one.  7% were not sure.

Read our full press release here.

Good Job, Chris, Dome

Dome has done a nice little piece on our own Chris Hayes who wears the hat of pollster (particularly of late.) Dome also has profiles of Elon's Hunter Bacot and PPP's Tom Jensen.

The question of bias came up in the piece, which always seems to be directed at Civitas. But there is plenty to go around in all three polls.  I'd like for the media to do a better job of ferreting out any bias all the way around.
-Max Borders

Polling the GOP Primary

Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling released their weekly tracking poll in the GOP race for governor today and while it shows a similar overall lead for Pat McCrory (about 10 points) as our poll released last Friday, there are some different demographics that may paint a different picture.  One of the main differences between our polls is the age distribution of who we poll.  Our poll tends to be older, PPP's much younger.

First of all, as always, we did not poll likely Primary voters, we polled likely General election voters, so our poll numbers should not be construed as a true reflection of what Primary voters will do.  These are two completely different groups who do not always vote or think the same way.   

Our poll skews considerably towards the older age demographic since these are the people who vote in General elections.  (In our GOP sample, 37% of the respondents were 65+ and another 23% were 55-64).
Older people vote in greater intensity than younger voters, it's just the way it is.  Our poll shows McCrory leading among older votes by 12-16 points. 

PPP's poll of GOP Primary voters only has 20% of their sample coming from those aged 60 and above.  And among those voters, they have McCrory leading Smith by only 1 percentage point (34-33).

The demographics for the GOP Primary is that it has traditionally been composed of nearly half of voters coming from the 60+ age group.  So if PPP's percentages for that demographic are correct, they would show a much closer race between McCrory and Smith if you weighted that result to a larger percentage of the sample.

While our poll isn't primary voters, it shows just about the opposite of PPPs -- older voters voting for McCrory in higher numbers.

Who is correct?  I don't know, it's probably somewhere in the middle.  McCrory is up on Smith, but probably by a smaller margin that either of our polls show.

Civitas Poll: 2/3rds Think Taxes are Too High

As everyone celebrates tax day today, we are releasing results of our April DecisionMaker poll that shows that 2/3rds of NC voters think the amount of taxes they pay are too high for the services they receive from state government.

The Civitas Institute’s April DecisionMaker reveals that two-thirds (66%) of North Carolina voters believe state taxes are too high for the services they receive. 29% believed it was about right, while only 2% thought taxes were too low.

“North Carolina residents overwhelming agree that they are not getting back in services what they are paying in taxes,” stated Civitas Institute Executive Director Francis DeLuca. “North Carolina used to be known as a low-tax state, but this is increasingly farther and farther from the truth,” DeLuca added.

Read the full release here.

Obama Widens Lead on Clinton in NC

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE   
CONTACT: FRANCIS DELUCA (919) 834-2099/

Obama Widens Lead on Clinton in NC
Both Democrats Trail McCain in General Election Matchup

Raleigh, N.C. – The Civitas Institute’s April DecisionMaker shows Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) 45-27 in the Democratic primary for President. 28 percent of those polled were undecided.

“Unless Hillary Clinton can do something dramatic in the next few weeks to change voter sentiment, it appears that Sen. Obama is on his way to winning North Carolina quite handily,” stated Civitas Institute Executive Director Francis DeLuca.  “A victory next Tuesday in Pennsylvania seems to be Sen. Clinton’s only hope of saving her campaign for President,” DeLuca added.

Looking forward to a potential General election matchup, presumptive Republican Presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) leads both Democratic counterparts by sizeable margins.  McCain leads Obama 48-39 and leads Clinton 50-37.

Download PRESIDENTIAL-Crosstabs.pdf  (Crosstabs)

“Despite the hundreds of thousands of dollars in television advertising and multiple personal appearances in the state by Senator Obama, Senator Clinton and their respective surrogates in the past month, neither candidate has been able to cut into Senator McCain’s lead,” DeLuca noted.  Civitas’ February DecisionMaker poll showed Sen. McCain leading Senators Obama and Clinton by 46-36 and 48-36 percent margins, respectively.

“The assumption that Sen. Obama would put North Carolina in play for the Democrats in November does not seem to be holding true at this time,” DeLuca added.

The study of 800 registered voters was conducted April 9-10 by TelOpinion Research of Arlington, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general election or were newly registered voters since 2006. The voters were interviewed using live callers.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95% of the time, results from 800 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-3.7% of the “True Values.”  “True Values” refer to the results obtained if were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2006.
-Max Borders

Poll: Moore Leads Perdue in Dem Primary

Check it out.

Divided by More than an Ocean

Europeans and Americans have very different attitudes about work, the poor, God and more...
-Max Borders

Elon Poll: Public Confused on Transportation

Elon University released a poll today on transportation in North Carolina.  The jist of it... People want more transportation options but don't want to pay for it.

I have some complaints with the wording and choices for some of the questions.

For example, they asked an open-ended question on what was the most important issue facing transportation in North Carolina.  The results were:
Gas Prices - 30.8%
Public Transportation - 17.1%
Road Conditions/Quality - 12.7%
Congestion - 9.7%
Traffic - 4.0%
Road Construction - 3.2%

My beef here is, why are "congestion" and "traffic" listed as two separate answers?  Aren't they basically the same thing?  And isn't "road quality" and "road construction" basically the same thing as well?

Also, I highly doubt 17.1% of the people responded specifically "public transportation."  Some probably said we need more bus routes, other probably said more light rail or mass transit options.  So why were they all grouped together into "public transportation" other than to make that response seem like it was more important?

Why was "public transportation" grouped as one answer when four roads-specific answers were listed singularly?  The obvious answer is there is some sort of bias in attempting to make it seem there is more support for public transportation than roads.

Second, their questions on tolls are misleading.  The questions make it sound like the state is going to stick toll booths on existing roads to collect more money.  In fact, the only proposal for toll roads is to be collected on newly-constructed roads (finishing 540, finishing 485, Monroe bypass, Triangle Parkway, another bridge to the outer banks, etc).  To make it sound otherwise is nothing more than scare tactics and is polling something that isn't reality.

And sure people say they support more rail options when you don't give them a price tag for it.  Living in Fantasyland where everything is free is fantastic, but again, not realistic.  Why not ask the public if they support raising $2 billion in taxes to pay for that rail expansion?
Asking blanket questions with no basis for personal impact or personal reflection is pointless.  It's like asking children if they like ponies. Of course they are going to say yes.  Do they like ponies as much when they have to feed them and clean up after them?  Of course not.

So maybe I've changed my summation of this poll by Elon -- basically, it's a poll of the wishlist of transportation if we lived in some magical world where trains and asphalt grew on trees.  But things cost money, real money, and people don't seem to want to pay.  So without juxtaposing those two things together, the poll is basically worthless.  But the media will fawn over it anyway.

Crosstabbing the Presidential Race

With the release of our February DecisionMaker poll today, I wanted to explore some of the crosstabs to see if any noticeable trends develop.  We'll start with the Presidential race.

First, as a reminder, we poll likely General election voters, and as such the head-to-head Primary matchups are not a predictor of how the election will turn out.

In the head-to-head of Obama v. Clinton, the poll shows Obama with a 14 point lead -- 38-24.
But if you look at the groups who are more likely primary voters, Obama's lead widens.
Among those who ID themselves as "Very liberal" or "Somewhat liberal" his lead widens to 24 points.
Among those who say they "Always vote Democratic" his lead widens to 22 points.
He has a 56 point lead with African-American voters (66-10).
He leads by at least 21 points in every age demographic except 65+ where he leads by 1%.

Therefore, I'd venture to guess Obama's lead over Clinton is actually higher than the 14 point margin we have it.  I'd say if primary voters are polled, the lead may be up in the high teens to around 20.  All this is really moot though since this race will be over next Tuesday when Obama wins TX and OH (Yes, I'm making that prediction).

When we take a look at the General election matchup, some interesting trends emerge.  Our poll has McCain with a 12 point lead on Clinton (48-36) and a 10 point lead on Obama (46-36).
The fun in the numbers is where the differences occur.
Among Unaffiliateds, McCain leads Clinton 46-36, but Obama leads McCain 43-36.  So McCain goes from a +10 to a -7.  A pretty big swing.
Breaking the unaffiliateds down even more, Obama is making his largest strides among unaffiliated women.  McCain beats Clinton among unaffiliated women by 6, but Obama beats McCain by 17.
I know it's early, but I think we just found one of the key demographics for this year's election.  It'll be interesting to watch these numbers over the next 8 months.

One potential problem for Obama is that his support seems to erode some among self-ID'd "Very liberals" or "Somewhat liberals".  Among "Very liberals" Clinton leads McCain by 73 points (85-12), but Obama only leads by 61 points (75-14), with an strong increase in those who "aren't sure".
Are these just dissatisfied Clinton hard-cores who will come back around in November?  Is there a chance that the Clintonites get upset at what has happened to their candidate that they stay home?

Another interesting sample is that McCain is getting 10% of the African-American vote against Clinton.  Protest vote for Clinton's earlier race baiting in South Carolina?  Quite possibly.

Similarly, many people have theorized that McCain is unappealing to the conservative base and they stay home.  So far, the numbers don't show that happening.  His numbers among "very" and "somewhat" conservative voters hold the same against either Obama or Clinton and the number of "not sures" (the answer dissatisfied conservatives would give) is not any higher among those groups than any other demographic or the population as a whole -- about 16%.  And converse to the argument, among people who say they "always vote Republican" (a truer indication of the base), only 5% say they are undecided and McCain leads Obama 92-3.

The Poll is Live

NC's DecisionMaker Poll is live. Check it out. (Heavy on healthcare.)
-Max Borders

A Note on Polling

As this election season drives forward in the mad dash to May (and then November), please keep one thing in mind when you read article after article on so called "public opinion polls."

Take a look at who they are sampling.

For example, the Elon Poll garnered hundreds of media hits over the weekend and into this week on their supposed election poll.  But a closer look at their sample reveals, they survey North Carolina households, not necessarily registered voters or much less likely voters.  Thus, their "poll" of supposed voter opinion factors in the opinions of a large percentage of people whose opinions do not matter cause they aren't registered and/or don't vote.

In 2004, 85% of the voting age population was registered to vote and only 64% of those voters actually voted.  Thus, only roughly half of the voting age population voted in the last Presidential election.

Therefore, since the Elon Poll surveys random households, we can guestimate that their survey is about half right.  Or to put it another way, they could be equally right or wrong in their survey results.  A 50% margin of error is not good.

Yet, the press continues to report this poll as a reflection of voters' intent, which is completely misleading. (See this AP story and very misleading headline that ran in tens of media outlets).

Many criticize phone or automated polls like the ones conducted by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling as inaccurate based solely on the technology they use.  Say what you want about their technology and the "science" of weighting responses, but at least they are sampling the right audience.  I'll believe the results of their poll over Elon's any day of the week.

Our monthly DecisionMaker poll is set to be released on Wednesday, but keep in mind that we sample likely General election voters.  And as such, I'll be the first to admit that our sample is not an accurate reflection of Primary voters and questions regarding the primary ballot should not be taken as such.  While it may be more accurate than Elon's since we actually sample voters, it is not as accurate as a poll of likely Primary voters.

The focus of our poll is on issues, not the horserace, and how those issues will play out in the General election.  So when you see results for the GOP or Democratic gubernatorial primary, please remember that it is a sample of General election voters.  We put those questions in there mainly because the media is obsessed with the horserace and not issues and frankly, we like the media attention.

I will say, however, that I think our General election polling matchups are pretty spot on.

We'd love to have you out for the poll lunch and release if you are available.  12 noon on Wednesday at the Clarion in downtown Raleigh.  For more information or to sign up, do so here.

Spinning Illegal Immigration: PPP Style

Tom Jensen over at Public Policy Polling says one of our questions was "interesting" and that he would have worded it a "little differently". Our question:

DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE DECISION BY THE NORTH CAROLINA COMMUNITY COLLEGE SYSTEM TO REQUIRE LOCAL COMMUNITY COLLEGES TO ADMIT 18 YEAR OLD ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS AND CHARGE THEM OUT-OF-STATE TUITION RATES?

His wording, Jensen says, would have been:

"Do you think the children of illegal immigrants, who have attended North Carolina's public schools, should be able to attend the state's Community Colleges?"

Jensen's wording is a strange - if not seriously misleading - way of putting the question. After all, the policy in North Carolina has nothing whatsoever to do with whether an illegal immigrant has attended the public schools or not. The policy is that they be at least eighteen years of age, which is why we phrased it that way. If Jensen is genuinely interested in some irrelevant counterfactual, then so be it. But I think he's probably admitting that he's interested in spin. After all, most community college students have nothing to do with former public school students, rather are educating illegals -- mostly in their 20s and 30s (average age is 29).

But Jensen's right: He would have worded the question in a way that frames the issue and biases the outcome. But we already knew that's what PPP is up to most of the time. Still, if this is their only objection to the Civitas poll this month, I guess we shouldn't quibble too much.

(Ouch. I'm only just now seeing this PPP skewering from gubernatorial candidate Orr.)
-Max Borders

If You Weren't At Lunch Today...

As one of the guest panelists, I went out on a limb and predicted that based on the polling data, Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue would win the Democratic nomination for Governor.

The overall results showed Lt. Gov. Perdue with a 34-24 lead over State Treasurer Richard Moore.

However, if you look at some of the crosstabs, Perdue holds bigger leads on demographics of the core Democratic constituency.
Among self-identified "very liberals" she leads by 15%
Among self-identified "somewhat liberals" she leads by 31%
Among those who say they "always vote Democratic" (aka. the hardcore voters) she leads by 15%
Among African-Americans she leads by 25%
Among women she leads by 17%.

So how exactly does Richard Moore win a Democratic primary without the support of African-Americans, women or liberals?

The only demographic where Moore is competitive is in self-identified "somewhat conservative" or "conservative" Democrats (aka "Jesse"crats) -- those who also say they vote Republican more than Democratic.

The appeal of Moore to conservative Democrats is one that makes him the strongest General Election candidate but that doesn't win you a primary.  My money is on Bev to win the primary even though she'd be a weaker candidate to run against the eventual Republican nominee.

The Poll is Up

And the results are truly bizarre on a number of fronts. Check it out: What do you think?
-Max Borders

Civitas Poll Luncheon Tomorrow - Come on Out

There are quite a few interesting developments this month in the world of N.C. polling... The biggest one has to be McCain going from zero to hero in this state, followed closely by Clinton's slide. Come check out the results in person; otherwise, find them after 3pm here.
-Max Borders
(PS: Civitas always appreciates the RSVP for luncheon participants.)

How to Spot a Bogus Poll

When a poll (pdf) says that a race is 49-47% ten whole months before the election, you know it's pretty suspect.

So I'm supposed to believe that only 3-4% of voters in NC's 8th Congressional District know right now who they are voting for.  I'd wager $100 that half the voters couldn't even tell you who one of the candidates is right now, much less for whom they'll be voting.

For comparison, New Hampshire polling done the past couple of days (2 days before the primary) show somewhere between 8-15% of the voters undecided.

But you've got to consider the source of the poll -- the SEIU -- who are obviously trying to drum up attention and excitement for their ultra-liberal agenda in what everybody knows is going to be a competitive contest between Hayes and Kissell.

If they would have said it was 39-37%, I could believe it.  But 49-47% -- no way.

Poll for "Political Junkies"

Glad somebody noticed. If you're a political junkie, you may also enjoy this month's DecisionMaker poll, which the media have largely ignored (probably because they prefer polls that tell them (pdf) what they want to hear).
-Max Borders

Mecklenburg Polling

This month we did a special edition of our DecisionMaker poll focusing on Mecklenburg County.  With a repeal of the half-cent transit tax, a $516 million school construction bond and a high-profile mayor's race all on the ballot, we though it would provide some interesting results.

Without further ado, the highlights:

1. Which of the following issues needs the most attention from Charlotte and Mecklenburg County:
            Construction of new schools - 27%
            New and improved highways - 22%
            Light rail system - 12%
            Crime and public safety - 36%

2. Do you think taxes in Mecklenburg County are:
            Much too high - 39%
            Somewhat too high - 31%
            Just about right - 25%
            Somewhat too low - 2%
            Much too low - 1%

3. If the $516 million bond referendum for building new public school facilities were held today, would you be voting for or against this referendum?
            For - 58%
            Against - 29%
            Not Sure - 13%

4. When you think about the new light rail system, how often will you use it:
            More than once a week - 5%
            Weekly - 3%
            Couple of times a month - 6%
            Monthly - 3%
            Occasionally - 22%
            Not at all - 59%

5. In 1999, voters in Mecklenburg County approved a 1/2 cent sales tax increase to support a light rail system and mass transit.  Will you vote to repeal the 1/2 cent mass transit tax?
           Yes - 39%
           No - 54%
           Not Sure - 7%

6. Would you support a real estate transfer tax in Mecklenburg County?
            Yes - 16%
            No - 66%
            Not sure - 18%

7.  Would you be more or less like to vote for a county commissioner who voted to put new taxes on the ballot?
            More - 9%
            Less - 70%
            No difference - 8%
            Not Sure - 13%

Interesting results.  The anti-tax sentiment in Mecklenburg County is fairly high, with a combined 70% of voters thinking that taxes are already somewhat or much too high.  Yet, a majority say they will vote against repealing the transit tax.  It would seem that the message saying that if the transit tax is repealed that property taxes will go up is working and resonating with voters.

As for the Mayor's race, one statistic should tell you everything you need to know to see how it is going to turn out:
Opinion of Beverly Earle:
            Favorable - 17%
            Unfavorable - 13%
            No opinion - 38%
            Not aware - 32%
Yikes.

Again, these are just the highlights, full results should be on the web on Monday.

Blogging Will Be Light Due to Poll Luncheon

Did you forget to reserve your spot at the Poll Luncheon today? Or if you're in Charlotte, we're having our special edition Poll Luncheon tomorrow, too. Come see us!

Policy Watch Having a Heineman Moment?

Many of you may remember back in 1996 when then US Congressman Fred Heineman got into a little political trouble by calling those making in excess of $200,000 "middle-class."  Congressman David Price used those words in a clever and effective ad titled "Earth to Fred" which mocked Heineman's claims and propelled Price back to Washington.  (If anyone has has a link to the video, let me know, I can't find it.)

Well, check out the text of the first question in NC Policy Watch's quarterly "Carolina Issues Poll":

Last week, President Bush vetoed a bill that would have expanded the State Children’s Health Insurance program. The bill would have provided coverage to several million low income children who are currently uninsured.

Apparently, NC Policy Watch believes that children in families making up to $83,000 (4x the poverty level) are now considered "low income."

According to Policy Watch's scale of income levels, Heineman's definitions can be justified.
Is it time for ground control to signal "Earth to Chris and Rob?"

Elon "Poll" again... (updated)

Well, it's that time again for the results of the latest Elon University "poll" to be released. See this AP article here. (I use the term poll very lightly, it should be more accurately called a survey.)

The media will once again fawn over the poll and report the results as a snapshot of the pulse of North Carolina.

Just remember, when you read about who's up or down, that this survey is of all North Carolina residents.  More or less, they start dialing random phone numbers and then figure out who they have on the line.

*** Update:  Download methodology_and_raw_data_elon.doc (word doc) Here is the actual methodology statement:

The Elon University Poll is conducted using a stratified random sample of households with telephones in the population of interest – in this case citizens in North Carolina.

Ok, so how is it relevant or newsworthy to ask people with telephones their political preference without asking 1) if they are registered to vote or 2) if they even plan to vote.  If both of these criteria aren't met, then their opinion doesn't really matter, does it?

Civitas Poll Released Today

Poll in pdf.

(Missed you today, Justin. Next time.)

Something to Fill Justin's Time

Just as Justin was wondering about how to spend his free time since we are taking the month off from polling, Under the Dome has word that a new "bi-partisan" polling firm has been started and is advertising their first poll results free to the public (later results for subscribers only).

Some of my favorite highlights of the poll:

Fav/Unfav ratings by Democratic primary voters (Question 6)
Marc Basnight - 15%/17% - 68% don't know
Joe Hackney - 19%/27% - 56% don't know

Yep... you read that right, Democratic Primary voters have a negative opinion of their leadership in the House and Senate, and it's a little surprising that less people know of Basnight than Hackney

Now check out the Republicans (Question 7):

Joe Hackney - 12%/58% - 30% don't know

Ok, so drawing from that, 70% of Republicans have an opinion of Hackney yet only 44% of Democratics do?  How is that possible?

Civitas Poll on Break during August

Justin Guillory over at Public Policy Polling is heartbroken over the fact that Civitas will not be having its poll or poll luncheon during August. For those of you, like Justin, who need the poll to get through these challenging times, we encourage you to keep checking in with us here at RCC. And be not troubled: the September poll is just around the corner. (Guests there will be Rufus Edmisten and Tom Campbell.)

Bias: A Contrast in Polling

Civitas Institute has received its fair share of criticism about biased polling questions. Most of those critiques came from Under the Dome and the Capital Beat, not to mention other assorted leftwing blogs.  But to see the perennial lack of attention to bias in other polls simply compounds the bias in those polls.

Here's the very first question of the most recent Public Policy Watch poll (I highlight obvious bias or misleading bits underlined in red):

"Most local governments are under pressure to raise capital investments in schools, roads, water, and sewer. parks, and housing for fixed income seniors. An alternative to property taxes is a real estate transfer tax that's paid one time when a property is sold. Five North Carolina counties have used transfer tax revenues to pay for schools and other infrastructure and reduce property taxes.

Do you feel that voters in each North Carolina County should be able to vote on whether or not their counties can use a one-time transfer tax to pay for community needs as an alternative to property tax increases? If you think yes people should be able to vote, press 1 on your keypad. If you think no,... If you don't know..." 84 percent support such a tax. No surprise there.

(I left in the "press 1 on your keypad" part of the quote to let readers know that Public Policy Polling has no way to verify if their respondents are 5-year-olds, 15-year-olds, much less who they claim they are. But I digress...) 

The most egregious bias in this is that it frames the question in such a way as to suggest any county has EVER ONCE suggested that transfer taxes would be an alternative to property taxes. Rarely in human history have taxes ever supplanted other taxes even if some slick politician has suggested it, somewhere.  So don't be fooled folks. The other misleading aspect of this is that it repeats "one-time". But the fact is: you will pay the tax every time you sell your home. Throwing in something about helping seniors is just intended to taint the question with pathos.

Here's a comparable question from June's Civitas Poll:

"A transfer tax is a tax assessed against the seller of a home or property at the time of the sale. Do you support a 1 percent transfer tax on homeowners selling their home to help local government pay for the costs associated with growth?" Funny. 78 percent of our respondents disapproved of such a tax despite self-identifying as more liberal than conservative on aggregate. [Update: Justin points out that the two polls were asking two different questions, which is true. I simply wanted to point out how you could ask theirs or a comparable question in a less biased manner.]

That folks is a contrast... Mark? Ryan? Bias Watchers? -Max Borders